: Opinion: Slowbalisation is setting in #IndiaNEWS #News By Elsabe Loots Over the past 25 years there has been lots of research and debate about the concept, history and state of globalisation, its

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Opinion: Slowbalisation is setting in #IndiaNEWS #News
By Elsabe Loots
Over the past 25 years there has been lots of research and debate about the concept, history and state of globalisation, its various dimensions and benefits. The World Economic Forum has set out the case that the world has experienced four waves of globalisation. In a 2019 publication, it summarised them as follows:
The first wave is seen as the period since the late 19th century, boosted by the industrial revolution associated with the improvements in transportation and communication, and ended in 1914. The second wave commenced after WW2 in 1945 and ended in 1989. The third commenced with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the disbanding of the Soviet union in 1991, and ended with the global financial crises in 2008. The fourth wave kicked off in 2010 with the recovery of the impact of the global financial crises, the rising of the digital economy, artificial intelligence and, among others, the increasing role of China as a global powerhouse.
More recent debates on the topic focus on whether the world is now experiencing a retraction from the fourth wave and whether it is ready for the take-off of the fifth wave. The similarities between the retraction period of the first wave and the current global dynamics a century later are startling. But do these similarities mean that a retraction from globalisation is evident? Is there sufficient evidence of de-globalisation or rather ‘slowbalisation’?
Parallels
The drawn-out retreat from globalisation during the 30-year period – 1914 to 1945 – was characterised by the geopolitical and economic impact of WWI and WWII. Other factors were the 1918-1920 Spanish Flu pandemic; the Stock Market Crash of 1929 followed by the Great Depression of the 1930s; and the rise of the Communist Bloc under Stalin in the 1940s. This period was further typified by protectionist sentiments, increases in tariffs and other trade barriers and a general retraction in international trade.
Looking at the current global context, the parallels are remarkable. The world is still fighting the Covid pandemic that had devastating effects on the world economy, supply chains and people’s lives. For its part, the Russia-Ukraine war has caused major global uncertainties, food shortages and fuel price hike. World inflation is aggressively on the rise for the first time in 40 years.
Global governance institutions like the World Trade Organisation and the UN, which functioned well in the post-WWII period, now have less influence while the Russian-Ukraine war has split the world politically into three groups. They are the Russian invasion supporters, the neutral countries and those opposing, a group dominated by the US, EU and the UK.

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