: Geopolitical power shifts divide the world into three groups #IndiaNEWS #International,Politics By Sanjeev SharmaNew Delhi, Feb 19 (IANS) The geopolitical distribution of power will see a fundamental

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Geopolitical power shifts divide the world into three groups #IndiaNEWS #International ,Politics
By Sanjeev SharmaNew Delhi, Feb 19 (IANS) The geopolitical distribution of power will see a fundamental shift as a result of the war in Ukraine, GIS Reports said. Traditional political alignments will harden.
Rudolf G Adam, a former vice president of Germanys Federal Intelligence Service wrote in GIS Reports that the world will remain divided into three groups that face each other with suspicion and open hostility:
* Western liberal democracies (US, Canada, EU, UK, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand)
* Russia, Belarus, Iran, Syria, Venezuela and North Korea, with China staying close. Regimes in these countries despise legal constraints both in dealing with other international actors or with their own subjects
* Developing nations of the South Asian subcontinent, the Arab world and South America
Adam said international institutions like the United Nations or the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) are paralyzed; regional associations will gather strength. Pressure for reform of the Security Council will rise but will have even lesser chances of success than 20 years ago.
The main beneficiaries of Russias war are China, India, Turkey, Iran and North Korea. They exploit trade opportunities that Western sanctions open for them. They profit from Russian oil at discount prices, Adam said.
Chinas bilateral trade with Russia grew to a record $ 190 billion in 2022, comparable to its trade with Germany. Last years China-U. S. trade, meanwhile, also grew to a record $ 691 billion. Chinese exports of finished industrial products rose by almost 40 percent.
Russias protracted war on its western front presents additional opportunities for China to improve its position vis-a-vis Russias Far East. China profits most as the two superpowers weaken each other and U. S. attention is diverted from the Pacific to the Atlantic, Adam said.
India has been quick in buying cheap Russian fuel and in benefitting from supplying what Moscow can no longer obtain directly from the West.
Turkey is mediating in this war. Communication channels with both sides remain open. Russias entanglement in Ukraine has strengthened Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogans hand in Syria. Turkey is the only NATO country that has shot down a Russian combat aircraft (in 2015) and is enjoying a privileged position vis-a-vis Moscow, having bought the Russian air defense system S-400 and having its first nuclear power station built by Rosatom.
Iran and North Korea have assumed a crucial role in weapon supplies. Russia is bound to honour their support at a critical juncture with political (and perhaps technological) support, Adam said.
Oil-exporting Arab states will see their political influence strengthened in the short term.

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