: NATO Russias miscalculations, new ground realities to shape Ukraine War #IndiaNEWS #International <br>However, chasing such a mirage increases the risk of an unprecedented escalation by ignoring

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NATO Russias miscalculations, new ground realities to shape Ukraine War #IndiaNEWS #International
<br>However, chasing such a mirage increases the risk of an unprecedented escalation by ignoring serious warnings from both sides. After a surprise stopover in Kiev announcing 0 million in military aid, US President Joe Biden made a strong pitch in Poland for support for Ukraine, despite the commotion caused by the ongoing Russia-China military drill in South Africa.
This was in response to Russian President Vladimir Putins announcement that he would suspend participation in New START, the only remaining major nuclear arms control treaty with the US, in his annual state of the nation address on February 21.
As the US-led NATO, fighting a proxy war on the shoulders of Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, announced sending battle tanks and long-range offensive weapons, the sensitivity to the risk of nuclear escalation is not hidden, as President Biden said no to fighter jets and asked Russia to respect the last of the nuclear pacts with the US.
NATO is divided on fighter aircraft support, additional sanctions, and swift inclusion of Ukraine into EU, leave aside NATOs bid, which first led to Zelenskys showdown with Putin.
Even with NATOs information campaign reiterating Ukraines victory, attaining an end state as it existed before February 24, 2022 must be considered nothing less than a pipe dream for Ukraine.
Russians have picked up momentum in the eastern region to speed up their gains before tanks and other offensive weapons arrive in Ukraine, besides the Stalingrad vows on the 80th anniversary of the Soviet victory in World War II, with a gentle reminder that response to tanks may well be in other domains.
With the heavy burden of economic cost and casualties, Russia too is struggling with achieving its desired end to the conflict. It makes all strategists wonder if the West is treating Russian warnings as bluff or a cornered Russia may press the wrong nuclear button, if NATO continues to take Putin for granted and goes ahead catering to Zelenskys unending wish list?
The big power contestation in Ukraine has few stark realities which both sides are hesitating to accept.
First, Russia with its large arsenal of nuclear weapons and hypersonic missiles under Putin will not get annihilated/decisively defeated without using any of these weapons. Second, the US will not risk the annihilation of Washington/New York to save Zelensky/Poland.
Third, Russia will not be able to annihilate Ukraine supported by NATO without a serious internal breakdown, and holding on to captured territory without local support will be a long-term challenge.
Fourth, Europe will not be more secure and prosperous, as it was before February 2022, as it did not pay heed to Russian security concerns and fell prey to American design of cutting off its dependency on Russia.

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